McSweeney’s: Our Election Model




Our election model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency. Her chance of losing is about the same as an NFL kicker missing a 34-yard field goal. Hang onto your ballots everyone — we’re almost there.

But don’t uncork the Champagne just yet. Clinton’s chance of winning in a landslide is the same as Charlie Brown’s chance of kicking the football that Lucy is holding in place. It’s likely that Lucy will pull the ball away at the exact moment that Charlie Brown is trying to kick it, which is a poignant symbol of despair and crushed hopes, and is also how this election might turn out after all. That’s sports, folks! Donald Trump could still pull this thing off.

Consider Arizona. Donald Trump’s chance of winning the Grand Canyon state is about the same as the likelihood that David Hasselhoff would agree to do a carpool karaoke with James Corden — very likely, indeed. The chances that James Corden would want to do a carpool karaoke with the Hoff, however, are dim.

The chance that the next president and the newly-elected Congress will work at cross purposes is about the same as Ed, from your fantasy football league, having a stent put in before he reaches the age of fifty-five. The chance that Congress will stall all legislation and meaningful progress is roughly equal to the likelihood that Ed will make a joke the next time you try to open up about your feelings of dread for the future.

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